Saturday, April 18, 2009

Light in the tunnel

After very strong Q1 results from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citibank and Wells Fargo some people claim that the situation of the financial industry starts to improve. The banks, which suffered extremely large losses during 2008 are now coming back to profitability. Citibank recorded the first positive (and solid) quarterly result for the first time since the middle of 2007. It is worth to mention that vast majority of these results was generated by sales&trading divisions.

Although it's far to early to claim that the banks are coming back to health, I firmly believe that this is definite sign of the recover of the financial industry.
Of course the banks will not restart hiring immediately. It's even possible that they will continue with firing, as the crisis in real economy is still unabated. However, recent increase in profitability gives a very good prediction about the future of the financial industry. It seems that the news about the death of financial sector are overstated - banking will still be here and will be strong - there is no other way. Any economy needs a healthy and profitable financial sector to sustain an economic growth.
I think it soon will be the best time for the newcomer to enter the industry. Now, it is really hard to find a job in the industry, but soon the demand for quality workers (with CFA for example) will pick-up. And at some point it will outweight the supply what would lead to wage inflation.

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