Tuesday, October 14, 2008
The winners and the loosers
Financial Crisis is not equally bad for all financial institutions. There are some banks, who will be better-off after the crisis is finished. Some organizations will end up as new leaders in specific market segments.
The banks that will really benefit in my opinion are: JPMorgan, Credit Suisse, Santander and to some extend Deutsche Bank (although it is very highly leveraged at the moment).
JPMorgan wins a lot of business from Hedge Funds because it considered to be a very well capitalized organization and because it was able to aquire very sucessful Bear Stearns Prime Brokerage Franchise. JPMorgan took a lot of business from beleagured ex-investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Merrill Lynch, but also because it is very well capitalized it will be able to attract best talents as other banks are not recruiting at all. If markets recover JPMorgan is the place you should be in.
Credit Suisse finally won its small war with UBS. For many years people have considered Credit Suisse to be a weaker and less clever brother of UBS. However, this lack of sophistication of Credit Suisse resulted in smaller loses in Subprime market. Clever and greedy UBS invested just to much into complex credit derivatives. Today, Credit Suisse is able to steal the business of UBS and it will soon become a leading Banking group in Swiss.
I don't need to say much about Santander. This bank is buying falling financial institutions for bargain. I expect Santander to become one of top 5 banks in the world in terms of financial firepower in a year or two.
Deutsche Bank is similar case to JPMorgan, but it's financial standing is much worse.
It is important that you stick with the winners of course :D
The banks that will really benefit in my opinion are: JPMorgan, Credit Suisse, Santander and to some extend Deutsche Bank (although it is very highly leveraged at the moment).
JPMorgan wins a lot of business from Hedge Funds because it considered to be a very well capitalized organization and because it was able to aquire very sucessful Bear Stearns Prime Brokerage Franchise. JPMorgan took a lot of business from beleagured ex-investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Merrill Lynch, but also because it is very well capitalized it will be able to attract best talents as other banks are not recruiting at all. If markets recover JPMorgan is the place you should be in.
Credit Suisse finally won its small war with UBS. For many years people have considered Credit Suisse to be a weaker and less clever brother of UBS. However, this lack of sophistication of Credit Suisse resulted in smaller loses in Subprime market. Clever and greedy UBS invested just to much into complex credit derivatives. Today, Credit Suisse is able to steal the business of UBS and it will soon become a leading Banking group in Swiss.
I don't need to say much about Santander. This bank is buying falling financial institutions for bargain. I expect Santander to become one of top 5 banks in the world in terms of financial firepower in a year or two.
Deutsche Bank is similar case to JPMorgan, but it's financial standing is much worse.
It is important that you stick with the winners of course :D
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